Bitcoin’s Never Look Back is one of the powerful predictions about the future of the most popular cryptocurrency on the planet. This theory agitates the global crypto community, with experts making extensive and enthusiastic comments and leading active debate on the main crypto forums worldwide.
Ten years after its launch, Bitcoin remains strong and increasingly popular. Although its value is far from $18,000 per unit of the 2018 bubble peak, some people say it is only a matter of time before it rises again. Some even say Bitcoin could cost a million dollars in 2028 – and that is what the Never Look Back theory is about.
Bitcoin spreads like a virus
The concept of Never Look Back (NLB) was baptized by market analyst Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, an investment agency specializing in cryptocurrencies. According to Peterson’s idea, the price of Bitcoin does not recede after reaching a certain value. Moreover, in the long term, the trend is on the rise. The reason? This analyst was the first to correlate the growth of the currency with the Metcalfe Law. Without engaging in mathematics, let us explain it intuitively:
If there is only one Bitcoin user in the world, the value of a unit is very low. After all, very few people understand what it is.
If there are two users, the value grows a bit. Both can negotiate something with each other or speculate on the future value of their coins. If the number of Bitcoin users grows to four, the value grows a little more … and so on.
If there are millions of bitcoin users, the value of the currency will thus reach the highest level. And the higher the BTC value, the more people there will be who want to use it.
Peterson expressed this process with the following metaphor: Bitcoin spreads like a virus. As the network grows, the long-term trend is rising, although the price may vary in shorter periods of time.
Never Look Back Price
Moreover, Peterson went further. Using data from the Bitcoin historical price series, the market analyst was able to demonstrate that, after reaching a certain level, the Bitcoin price never drops again. In his words: Bitcoin’s Price Never Look Back. From there, he made the forecast: in the long term the trend is of great growth.
The Bitcoin trend has always been appreciative, despite any fluctuation. The value of the cryptocurrency has never fallen below the previous level.
As the number of users continues to increase (according to Metcalfe’s Law), the trend for the future is for the value to grow. With this, the math estimates that in 2028 the value of Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars per unit.
Speculators vs Adepts
To better understand the gradual increase in the value of Bitcoin, Peterson notes an important difference. According to his theory, there are two types of users in the crypto universe:
Speculators: individuals or companies that are looking to make a quick profit with Bitcoins. There are the curious, the operators and even price handlers. As they seek immediate profitability, this type of agent causes large variations in price in small time intervals. There are millions of users who invest or divest in short periods, causing instability in the value of the currency.
Adepts: people or companies that have definitely adopted Bitcoin. Rather than waiting for long-term returns, these agents are permanently in the Bitcoin market, regardless of fluctuations.
According to Peterson, it is the second group that allows Bitcoin’s value to grow sustainably. As they remain in the market no matter what happens, it is them who retains the value of cryptocurrency at levels above the previous one.
And the adept group is getting bigger. This can be proven with the fact that currently there is the highest number of active addresses, hash rates, nodes and mining on the Bitcoin network in recent years. In addition, research indicates that the number of individuals who intend to acquire cryptocurrencies in the near future is huge.
Conclusion: Bitcoin still has great potential
The main goal of Peterson’s studies is to shed light on Bitcoin and show that the behavior of its market is not completely unpredictable: with data from historical series, it is possible to find patterns in the growth of the network and in the general cryptocurrency valuation movement, despite short term fluctuations.
If Peterson is right, and the Never Look Back forecast is correct, cryptocurrency is an interesting investment even for those with a conservative portfolio, those that are more risk averse. For those who are already in the crypto sphere, it is a stimulus to remain in it.
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