What is the Bitcoin
forecast for 2020? This is the question that is on the lips of crypto
investors, market analysts and bitcoiners around the world. The beginning of
the year is time to review the historical data of the cryptocurrency, analyze
its recent development and elaborate forecasts for this year.
After all, there are numerous disagreements about what will happen with Bitcoin in 2020. There are serious people – like John McAffe, one of the most respected figures in the crypto world – who says that the price of Bitcoin can reach one million dollars this year. However, more pessimistic analyses estimate the value at only $ 2,700 per coin.
InterCambio blog presents two very different views on the Bitcoin 2020
forecast. The first one takes into account the influence of international
politics on the price of the cryptocurrency. The second one focuses on the
famous Bitcoin halving, which we will explain below.
Bitcoin 2020 Forecast: the geopolitical vision
In an article published in the Forbes magazine, the investor Clem Chambers states that the price tendency of Bitcoin in 2020 will depend on the development of the trade war between the United States and China. Let’s see why.
on the price of Bitcoin
Nowadays China is the
biggest power in the Bitcoin mining world due to the low prices of its electric
power. Currently, it is estimated that around 65% of mining energy is centered
in the Asian country. Due to this fact, most of the new Bitcoins are in the
hands of the Chinese.
Moreover, as the
Chinese population is gigantic and the country’s economy continues to grow, its
influence on the price of Bitcoin is enormous. The increasing demand for crypto
assets in the country influences the entire world’s crypto market.
Bitcoin and the
Since the president
Donald Trump has recently proposed an agreement to de-escalate the commercial
war, less Chinese tend to invest in cryptocurrencies. Optimistic about
the progress of more traditional businesses, investors tend to opt for
traditional investments and a good performance in the country’s economy.
However, if there is
no agreement between the countries, the instability of the renminbi (the
Chinese currency) is greater, and there is a greater skepticism regarding
traditional investments. Considering this, more Chinese tend to invest in
Therefore, the analyst
Clem Chambers claims that the Bitcoin forecast for 2020 depends on the progress
of the trade war negotiations between China and the United States, and
especially on the re-election of the president Trump this year. Until the
elections in the US in November 2020, says Chambers, Bitcoin will remain below
$ 6000 per unit.
If Trump wins, the trade
agreement may become more difficult, boosting the price of cryptocurrency. If
the candidate of the Democratic Party wins, which can lead to a probable end of
the trade war, the trend is that the value of the currency won’t rise.
Bitcoin 2020 Forecast: the importance of halving
As we know, each
transaction within the Bitcoin network is stored in a kind of a public
spreadsheet. Of course, those who prove the validity of these hundreds of
thousands of transactions are not people but computers. It should also be noted
that transactions are not verified individually, but in blocks (and therefore
there is the term “blockchain”).
with gold, this process was called mining. For each block of validated
transactions, computers are remunerated with a certain amount of Bitcoins.
Currently, miners receive 12.5 BTC for each validated block.
For every 210,000
validated blocks, the amount of this compensation is reduced by half.
Therefore, the price of the cryptocurrency is deflationary. After all, it is
becoming increasingly difficult to get a cryptocurrency. In 2140, the forecast
is that all Bitcoins will have been mined.
Halving will raise
the price of Bitcoin
Many people bet that
Halving will make the Bitcoin price grow. The logic is quite simple: since it’s
more difficult to obtain a new cryptocurrency, a unit value tends to increase, provided
that the demand for the currency increases or at least remains the same.
That is what happened
in the last two Bitcoin halvings. Let’s take a look at the numbers:
Reward: 50 to 25 BTCs per validated block;
BTC price on the date: $ 12
BTC price 5 months later: $ 127
Second halving (07/09/2016),
Reward: 25 to 12.5 BTCs per validated block;
BTC price on the date: $ 650
BTC price 5 months later: $ 758
If the historical
trend continues, Bitcoin halving in 2020 will raise the prices. Since the
expectations for the event are high, it is very likely that more people are
willing to take a chance and invest in this crypto asset.
Most analysts believe that
there will be a positive change in the price of the cryptocurrency after the
event, although there are big disagreements about the level of the impact. The
estimated range goes from $ 20,000 to $ 100,000 per coin.
However, until then
the market can fluctuate a lot. At this time, the currency is traded below $
7,000. Will it keep falling? Or will it stabilize?
Conclusion: 2020, high expectations for Bitcoin
It is always important
to be aware of the Bitcoin price forecasts. Even if you invest in other
cryptocurrencies, BTC fluctuations affect the crypto world as a whole.
As we have seen, there
is a certain disagreement about the direction that the crypto assets will take
this year. On the one hand, halving will certainly have some kind of impact on
the value of Bitcoin, and most analysts claim that it will be a positive
On the other hand,
Bitcoin is not immune to the evolution of the world politics. On the contrary,
cryptocurrency is very sensitive to the changes on the international market. In
this sense, understanding the most important variables and following
international news is important for making right investing decisions this year.
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